Pop artist, Bobi Wine set to challenge Museveni in 2021 Uganda presidential election

Earlier this month, opposition political Robert Kyagulanyi, otherwise known as the popular reggae artist Bobi Wine, announced that he will challenge the country’s longtime president, Yoweri Museveni in the upcoming 2021 election. Bobi Wine, a young and vibrant 37 year old represents the generational chasm between the rulers and the ruled of Uganda. President Museveni is reported to be 73 years old and shows no signs of stepping down. He has already abolished the presidential term limit and then the age limit for retirement of 75 years. The median age of his cabinet members is 65, when the median age of the population of Uganda is 16 years. Wine entered politics as a complete political outsider in 2017 when he ran for the parliamentary seat as an independent and without the backing of any political party. He won in a landslide election and has been a nuisance to Museveni and his grasp for power ever since.

Museveni who has ruled Uganda for the last 32 years, faces a serious challenger in Bobi Wine, the current Kyadondo East Member of Parliament (MP), who has gained immense popularity among young people through his popular music and his bravery in challenging the Museveni political power. In one of the youngest and most rapidly growing populations in the world with 70% of the population under the age of 24 years, Bobi Wine has been able to represent a new generation of young people. As he told BBC after his parliamentarian win, “I am going to stand up for issues. I’m here to give young people confidence.”

The self-proclaimed “ghetto president” began his music career in the early 2000s and has used the musical platform as well as social media platforms to urge Ugandans to play an active role in ending corruption and injustice in Uganda. In his latest 2018 song “Tuliyambla Engule”, which has over 1 million views on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJcqew3dQ9g), the lyrics are explicit “When the struggle is over, we shall wear the victor’s crown, we shall walk with swag in a new Uganda!”. The song features young university graduates, farmers, and young men wearing red berets (the global revolution symbol) together with other famous Uganda pop artists. The song encourages Ugandans to register for a National Identity Card to access the right to vote. During a press conference after the opposition presidential victory in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Wine told reporters “We have the power to remove the tyrant but we want to do it in a constitutional and civilized way through election, so we call upon all Ugandans to get their National Identification cards come 2021 so that we kick Museveni out of power.”

Beyond the music platform, which offers great visibility and access to the youth in Uganda, Bobi Wine is also using another youth advocacy tool- social media. He has used all major social media channels to reach out to young people and share his messages within minutes through free content sharing. Therefore, it was no surprise to find that a few months into the fight for power, Museveni instituted the world’s first ever social media tax to crack down on dissent. On July 1^st, 2018 the government of Uganda began a tax on 58 different social media services after President Museveni blamed social media sites for the spread of “gossip” and “fake news.” The tax costs 200 Ugandan shillings ($0.05) per day for social media use in a country where 25 percent of the population lives under the poverty line ($1.25 a day, or 4,500 Ugandan shillings).

This added fuel to the already burning fire. Just ten days after the institution of the tax, Bobi Wine led a rally of protesters in the streets of Kampala. They were met by the bullets and tear gas of security forces as they attempted to disperse the crowds. As Wine wrote on his Twitter that day, “There’s no amount of bullets, teargas or arrests that will stop us. Some of our colleagues have been beaten up and others arrested. They must be freed for they have nothing against the police but rather the terrible tax.” Despite the protests and ongoing lawsuits in the Ugandan constitutional court, the tax still stands. Nevertheless, Wine continues to use social media platforms to reach those that can afford daily social media, particularly to raise global attention for his plight after his arrest and detention just one month after the social media tax took effect.

On August 15^th, Wine was arrested with 32 others and charged with treason for allegedly throwing stones at the President’s car during a heavily-contested municipal election in the north-western town of Arua. During the scuffle and chaos with police firing live rounds to disperse the crowd, Wine’s driver, Yasin Kawuma, was shot dead. Wine later wrote on Twitter “Police has shot my driver dead thinking they’ve shot at me.” Wine was detained for two weeks in Gulu and alleged that he faced torture and heavy beating at the hands of the Uganda military’s Special Forces Command (SFC).

The video of Wine’s arrest and the hashtag #freebobiwine first appeared on Twitter the morning following his arrest and soon became a trending hashtag around the world and is still active today. Videos and images of him circulated online together with messages from his family and friends. Through social media channels, concerts and rallies calling for his release were organized and held in Kenya, the UK, and South Africa. International artists such as Chris Martin from Coldplay were among those who came out in support of Wine’s release while international organizations such as Human Rights Watch called for an independent investigation into the shooting of Wine’s driver

Bobi Wine’s online advocacy worked as many believe that he was only released from prison following widespread protests and pressure from these global activists and governments. When Wine appeared in court for his release, he reported that he had been tortured in detention. Unable to walk or stand on his own, he was instead relying on crutches. The Museveni government dismissed these claims as “fake news^”.

A few days after his release, on his way to board a flight to the US to receive medical treatment for his injuries from the alleged torture, Wine was stopped and brought to a government hospital where he was detained. The re-arrest of Wine triggered fresh protests in Kampala as supporters took to the streets of Kampala to protest the unlawful detention by burning tires and setting up barricades across the streets. The following day, Wine arrived in the United States, just a day after he was denied boarding.

During his time in the US, Wine used the opportunity to call on the United States government to stop the financial support of the Ugandan military. In Washington DC, he held a press conference with his attorney, Robert Amsterdam, and met with US congressmen, Senate and members of the State Department to highlight the human rights violations and repressions of freedoms by the Ugandan government. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Wine urged the US Congress to suspend the $800m support for the Ugandan military. He explained “It’s important, especially to the US taxpayers, to know that much of the military aid we get is actually used to oppress and brutalize the citizens of Uganda. The gun that killed my driver that could have probably killed me is an American gun.”

On his arrival from the US, Wine was arrested again. Police later said in a statement that he was instead “peacefully escorted” home. Again in December 2018, the police attempted to arrest him in Jinja where he was planning to perform at a concert. Wine claimed that the police raided his hotel and arrested many of his friends, while he allegedly beat security to elude the arrest and returned to Kampala. His lawyer Amsterdam issued a statement saying “This is a clear and brazen act of targeted political repression by the Uganda authorities aimed at violating Bobi Wine’s human rights.”

Despite this all, Bobi Wine is not giving up. With his latest announcement to challenge Museveni in the 2021 elections, Musevini and his government are determined to find any way possible to stop him from gaining momentum. Most recently, while meeting with Kampala city youth, Museveni derided Wine as a clown who cannot manage politics and instead he should stay in the music industry.

This is  not anything new to the Museveni presidency. Other main opponents, particularly Kizza Besigye who ran for president in 2006, 2011, and 2016 have been treated the same way as Wine. What is new, is the ability of Wine to appeal to the mass population of young Ugandans with appeals to organize, speak up, and mobilize to end the Museveni presidency.

 

 

Are good news from Africa “false news”?

It is hard to get reliable news from Africa. Western media tend to concentrate on political failures, disasters, hunger and unrest while African scholars and media are surprisingly anonymous. Most books on African politics, history and culture are written by foreigners or by Africans living abroad.

After having followed development in Africa closely since 1969, I have learned that whatever I write about Africa the opposite might also be true, sometimes forgetting that Africa consist of 54 countries.

Development is not a linear process. There are ups and downs and there is no single path to prosperity. History has also shown that what works in practice is often not as prescribed in theories.

Africa is often described as the hopeless continent or the continent with potentials, but ruled by power-hungry, corrupt leaders relying on a patrimonial system of governance. And there is no doubt, there are three ghost walking across the continent: poverty, inequality and corruption.

But, there is also another story to be told about Africa.

Enormous changes and development have taken place since I first lived in Africa. To revisit places like Bungoma and Muranga in Kenya and Monze and Kalingalinga in Zambia shows huge transformation of society, mainly to the better.

We sometimes forget that most Africans have never experienced war or hunger. They live ordinary peaceful lives. A relatively high proportion of Sub-Saharan Africa is at peace today. It is also worth to mention that a country like Zambia, with more than 70 ethnic groups, 7 major languages and 73 dialects, is still a peaceful country.

According to the Ibrahim Governance Index 40 African countries have seen governance improvement the last decade, with participation and human rights showing the most progress last year.

Some despots have been forced out of office.  A new promising leader in Ethiopia, Ahmed Abiy, is in place pushing for social and political reform. The war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has ended. Another new broom, president Lourenco, has taken over in Angola aiming at transforming the society. And there has been some progress in war-torn Somalia. The country is said to have “graduated” from being a failed state to become a fragile one.

Good economic growth continues in countries like Botswana, Rwanda and Kenya. In Liberia life expectancy has increased from 59 years in 2016 to 64 years in 2018. And Africa is now experiencing one of the biggest falls in child mortality ever seen.

Some traditional leaders have seen what is coming and taken the role as change agents. Both in Zambia and Malawi some chiefs have spoken out vigorously against child marriage and other harmful practices.

Tech hubs are popping up all over Africa. Many people say that internet has improved both politics and economics. And very interesting, some autocratic leaders are now fearing social media much more than they fear opposition political parties.

Above I have mentioned just a few areas of good news. Much more could be filled in.

 

 

 

The power of getting together – the end of benevolent dictatorship in Africa?

This has happened so often: An aspiring president has launched a political platform based upon fight against corruption, reduction of poverty,  less nepotism, revival of agriculture and equal treatment of all ethnic groups.

Once in power, the vision often fades out. It seems as if powerful forces in society that encompass the presidency take the lead. Quickly a newly elected president is trapped by an elite that greatly benefits from the system of patrimonialism.  The president seems to be paralyzed by external pressures. He starts to allocate privileges among the powerful elites to secure important support as soon as re-election is on the agenda.

The late president of Zambia, Levy Mwanawasa, once complained bitterly about how he was frustrated by people around him and who defeated him in his struggle to fight corruption.

Some leaders have changed from being champions of democracy when in opposition to become autocratic in position, clinging to power. And autocratic leaders are usually scared of people with different political views. They intimidate the opposition, threaten the free media and civil society and allow police to harass ordinary people.

However, since 2016, protests against this kind of leadership have swept across Africa. Often articulated and organized through social media. Many authoritarian leaders now fear social media more than they fear opposition political parties because of the new media`s ability to mobilize against the regime in power.

Brutal and dictatorial leaders like Mugabe, dos Santos and Jammeh have been ousted. New regimes are in place in South Africa and Ethiopia.

The most impressive of the new leaders is the prime minister of Ethiopia, Abiye Ahmed. He has said he will reform the judiciary, revisit the repressive laws, open up the democratic space and give space for a free and independent media.

It shall be interesting to follow his ability to manoeuvre in the old political system and see if has the strength and stamina to implement his political platform and be a model for  other African countries,

 

 

 

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Agriculture is the engine driving many African countries

Two thirds of Africans depend on farming for their livelihood. The sector`s potential is enormous. The World Bank has estimated that African agriculture and agribusiness could be worth $ 1 trillion in 2030.

However, agriculture is not attractive for African youth. To be a farmer is regarded as backbreaking, hard labour in the fields with meagre benefits. They have seen their parents, poor with ragged clothing, using old- fashioned equipment, always short of fertilizers and other inputs to survive. Farming is for the elderly and poor in rural areas

The upcoming generation of young people, often poor and irrelevant education, prefer to settle in urban areas in search of employment there.

If agriculture were to get the same political support and financial investment as mining sector, agriculture would be capable of providing more jobs with decent income. Reforms have to be introduced to mechanize and produce the agriculture more efficiently.

Urban people are often fed by imported food, which undermines domestic agriculture. Africa imports $ 34 bn of food annually, but could easily feed itself if agricultural productivity improved. Africa need to add more value to its natural resources before being exported.

The need to reverse decades of policy neglect and to increase investment in African agriculture is widely recognized. Some critics, however, argue that large-scale investment can marginalize Africa`s small scale farmers and open up for increased land grabbing by international companies with little understanding of local land rights

Some agricultural economists emphasise the potentials for a full range of investment options for promoting agricultural development as collaboration between small-, medium-, and large-scale players.

Foreign investment in agriculture is no necessarily “land grabbing”. The main reason why international land rush to Africa is providing bad news for rural people has to do with the complete failure of governance and lack of control of the decision making process. Large land deals are signed over the heads of local people, while greedy politicians are concerned getting their share of the investment.

Job creation for young people is more about political leadership and political will than about shortage of funds. When Asian countries were poor as African countries to-day, they decided to change their economies, starting with smallholder agriculture.

To invest in agriculture could benefit food security at both global and national level. But incentives and good policies need to be in place to attract young people to farming.

Civil Society in Africa – the role of foreigners

Civil society is not necessarily good in itself. Sometimes civil society has contributed  towards destruction of societies and played a negative role in conflicts and peace  building. But in most countries civil society plays an important role both as a provider of services and with an important watchdog function constantly challenging those in power.

For many years formal African civil society organisations, both the agenda setting and financing, have been the domain of external actors. Often indigenous organisations have been established and financed to implement policies of international civil society organisations.

This is now about to change. In the future, the trend is that local organisations approach foreign organisations for cooperation, not the other way around.

African governments have welcomed foreign NGOs when the main focus has been service delivery. They are now, however, increasingly skeptical to external political/human rights involvement. There is no doubt that the shrinking space for many NGOs in Africa often is caused by the use of external funding to influence domestic decision making. It is easy to be fatigued by constantly being advised and influenced from outside.

One reason may be that international NGOs often are surprisingly disconnected from newly established indigenous organisations and movements now gaining influence in many African countries. The new wave of associations seems to be based on the importance of maintaining local legacy. They are open for cooperation with foreign NGOs, but not to be dominated by them. They would fail in their mission if they were to concentrate on designing log-frames and writing reports to donors.

But to be open for ideas from outside is a good thing for all!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Africa – between optimism and despair

Africa was believed to become the new superpower. With all its potentials and with an upcoming generation of new leaders,  the “Africa rising” movement developed both inside and outside the continent.

Now Africa is not even able to feed its own people. It seems to have been another false start. It has been estimated that 60% of the world`s uncultivated arable land is in Africa, just waiting for leaders to exploit it instead of begging for food to avoid hunger. Some leaders also use “climate  change” as an excuse for lack action.

Millions of people are at risk of starvation in countries like Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan. These countries are all at war. The famine is never just a  natural disaster. It is always a product of politics.

National leaders should be drivers of development for all rather than being preoccupied with distributing privileges among themselves. When a poor country shops for weapons, begs for food and ignore poverty in their own country, the term “failed state” is relevant. Reports from South Sudan say that the Government try to stop humanitarian aid because it could be used to feed the enemy, is an indication that South Sudan is no 1 failed state in Africa today.

Countries like Rwanda, Ethiopia and Uganda are not the best models of “good governance”, but their autocratic leaders have been effective in stabilizing their countries, as well rebuilding fragmented societies.

Democracy is hard  to sustain in the absence of economic growth for the poor. People start looking for a firm hand who acts more than he/she talks. Many of the most impoverished have come to see democracy as a system that keeps them poor and the corrupt people in power.

Maybe there are better systems of representative governance in Africa than the competitive western style multi-party elections, without going the autocratic way?

Maybe Africa did not plan for success

African countries have had a fast and impressive growth. But the economic growth did not coincide with poverty elimination because it was not linked to the economic sectors that affect the poor. Youth unemployment has now reached  alarming proportions.

The risk for riots and more social unrest is accelerated by the urbanization of the poor. Frustrated young people living people in townships are easily attracted to criminal gangs or terrorist organizations. Access st social media also make mobilization more easy.

Africa displays the fast rate of urban growth in the world. It has been estimated that African countries need to generate productive jobs for 7 to 10 million young people entering the labor force each year.

Many young people are without the requisite skills to enter the formal labor market, which has become increasingly demanding. A disturbingly high share of those who have completed primary school have difficulties with reading and writing.

The school system many places is characterized by students who are expected to be obedient, follow instructions, copy what the teacher says and memorize form the text books. Conformity is a prime virtue.

African leaders have declared 2009 – 18 “the African youth decade”. Governments have launched numerous youth employment strategies, but unemployment and underemployment continue to rise.

More and more Africans refuse to tolerate a situation that Africa is a rich continent  but the majority of its people being very poor.

A recipe for instability and unrest, unless new leaders emerge and act instead of talk.

 

 

 

To defeat a President

Typical  African scenario:

 

1. The newly elected President has launched an ambitious reform program to fight poverty, reduce corruption, revive agriculture and secure equal treatment of all ethnic groups.

2. The President is quickly encompassed by powerful forces within society who benefit from status quo and continued patrimonialism. The President gets frustrated and gives gradually up his reform agenda.

 

3. When the President retires, he joins the group of the “old and wise” who look behind and talk about what they could and should have done when in power.

 

Recommended reading: “Inside the Presidency”, written by former Presidential  adviser in Zambia, Dickson Jere

Africa – from pessimism to optimism- and now more realism

There are many sweeping statements about development in Africa. Some are optimistic and some are pessimistic. The outside world has difficulties in understanding what is happening in Africa and the extraordinary forces in play there. Little insight  is provided by western media.  African scholars are often surprisingly anonymous

And Africa is complex. For every generalization you must exclude some countries. When you think you have nailed down a certainty, you will find that the opposite is also true.

For example, ethnicity has been seen has a major reason for civil wars and unrest in Africa. But there are exceptions. War-torn Somalia has a population where the vast majority share the same language, ethnicity, culture and religion, while peaceful Zambia has more than 70 ethnically groups, 7 major languages and 73 dialects.

What we know is that two out of three Africans are under twenty-five years old. The population of the continent will double in 20 years. We also know that it will then be principally urban. By 2030, over half of the continent`s population will live in cities.

The Afro-pessimists fear unemployment, development of huge urban slums, violence, crime and civil wars. They believe that the present economic growth is temporary. The lack of employment possibilities and development of urban slums combined with poor political leadership will result in Africa as a permanent poor and undeveloped continent.

The Afro-optimists do not fear the demographic explosion. They see the expansion of urban youth and a bonanza of natural resource export as potentials for further economic development. Urban youth are the workforce best suited for innovation and productive employment.

Africa sits upon the world`s largest reserves of a whole range of essential resources and will soon learn how to negotiate on its own terms with other countries. With accountable governments, effective public spending and revenues from taxes to the benefit of the people and not to the few, Africa could be the next emerging power.

So what kind of political system is best to serve a society which is resource-rich and ethnically diverse? Is Rwanda the model, or Zambia?

Multi-party system, as we know it in Europe, has not been a success as a mean of representing the will of the people. Most people in Africa care more about having a Government that secures peace, stability, housing, health facilities and education than a system that is democratic the way we know democracy in Europe.

Paul Collier has one answer: “The type of polity that appears most appropriate is one Africa tends not to have: strong checks and balances on how governments can use power and decentralized public spending.”

For democracy to work, winners must not be greedy, losers must accept defeat and trustworthy institutions must be in place to monitor and regulate.

 

 

 

Too little too late – leadership crisis in Africa

Africa is getting richer, but political violence and inequality is on the rise. There are now peacekeeping missions in 11 African countries. Or as one angry Nigerian wrote from Lagos: “Why is it that Africans seem to love killing other Africans?”

Nearly all conflicts in Africa is a mixture of poverty, ethnicity and religion. The impressive economic growth has not been translated into jobs for young people.

Terrorist movements and criminal gangs take advantage of the widening levels of inequality and opportunity. Poor, unemployed youth is a ticking time bomb. They are easily recruited to terrorist organizations and crime. Governments have failed to take political action.

Sometimes ethnicity is the real source for the conflict. However, some politicians use ethnicity to promote their own ambitions.

Ethnicity is an identity. The challenge is to build a unified nation with different ethnicities peacefully coexisting. Some countries, like Tanzania and Zambia, with a large number of different tribes, have succeeded. I don’t think the former presidents Nyerere and Kaunda have been given the credits they deserve for having achieved this.

The two ex-presidents understood that nation building in Africa means to give some room to ethnicity and traditional identity, but not allow it to dominate the political life.

Today we see two Africas: One is the new land of opportunity, economic growth, optimism and limitless possibilities for investors. The other Africa is the hopeless continent with poverty, hunger, corruption, crime and countries being easy prey for foreign investors and land grabbers.

Fortunately, some emerging African politicians will not use the ethnic card. They understand that failing to address Africa’s inequalities is a recipe for social unrest.

The question remains, however: Will this new generation of promising African politicians (or “cheetahs” as George Ayittey label them) ever reach power? And will they, once in power, change and only follow in the footsteps of their predecessors?